As I type this sentence, it’s 11:00 a.m. on Friday, April 4. I must immediately state that because the Western Conference playoff standings shuffle every night. Teams 3-8 are separated by only 2.5 games, with 5 to 6 games remaining, depending on the team.
The Minnesota Timberwolves are in the seventh spot, 0.5 games ahead of the eighth-place LA Clippers and 2.0 games behind the third-place Denver Nuggets. They are one of the hottest teams in basketball, going 13-3 since the calendar turned to March. They ended February with a one-point loss to the Utah Jazz when Anthony Edwards was suspended and have only risen two spots in the standings.
With such a tight race and many teams surging in the West, who each team around the Wolves in the stands plays matters for playoff seeding
Minnesota Timberwolves
The Timberwolves have the easiest remaining schedule out of the Western Conference playoff teams.
- 4/5 at Philadelphia (23-54)
- 4/8 at Milwaukee (42-34)
- 4/10 at Memphis (45-32)
- 4/11 Brooklyn (25-52)
- 4/13 Utah (16-61)
Minnesota could win all five remaining games. The Sixers are on a ten-game losing streak and 3-25 in their last 28 games. Eight of the 15 players on their opening-day roster are injured and not expected to play against the Wolves.
The Bucks and Detroit Pistons are 42-34 and battling for the fifth seed in the East. However, Milwaukee is injured. Damian Lillard is out with a groin injury, and sixth man Bobby Portis is suspended due to an alleged medication mixup. It will not be an easy victory, but the Wolves are the better team.
Minnesota’s primetime matchup with the Memphis Grizzlies is also winnable. They are 3-8 in their last 11 and freefalling in the standings. In an almost unprecedented move, they fired their head coach, Taylor Jenkins, on March 28. While nobody should take the Grizzlies lightly, the Wolves are the better team.
That leaves the Wolves with home matchups against the Brooklyn Nets and Utah Jazz to finish the season, two of the league’s bottom six teams. Brooklyn and Utah have shut down most of their starting players to see what they have in young talent and increase their draft lottery odds. Minnesota should win both games.
That’s the path to 5-0 for the Wolves. However, for argument’s sake, they could easily finish 4-1, given two of the final five games are against playoff-caliber teams. The rest of the West’s schedules illuminate how fortunate Minnesota’s schedule is, though.
Denver Nuggets
The three-seed Nuggets (47-30) lead the Wolves by 2.0 games in the standings.
- 4/4 at Golden State (45-31)
- 4/6 Indiana (45-31)
- 4/9 Sacramento (36-40)
- 4/11 Grizzlies (45-32)
- 4/13 at Houston (50-27)
All five of their games are against playoff or play-in teams, including against the Golden State Warriors and Grizzlies, who are chasing them in the standings.
Los Angeles Lakers
The four-seed Los Angeles Lakers (46-30) face a similar finish to the year and only hold a 1.5-game lead over the Wolves.
- 4/4 New Orleans (21-55)
- 4/6 at Oklahoma City (64-12)
- 4/9 at Dallas (38-39)
- 4/11 Rockets (50-27)
- 4/13 at Portland (34-43)
The Lakers face two playoff teams and the Dallas Mavericks in the play-in. The Oklahoma City Thunder and Houston Rockets are safely in the 1 and 2 seeds, but they will likely look to send a message to the Lakers.
Golden State Warriors
The fifth-seeded Warriors (45-31) only hold a half-game lead over the Wolves. Like the Nuggets and Lakers, they face a gauntlet to end the year.
- 4/4 Denver (47-30)
- 4/6 Houston (50-27)
- 4/8 at Phoenix (35-41)
- 4/9 at San Antonio (32-44)
- 4/11 at Portland (34-43)
- 4/13 Clippers (44-32)
Golden State is the rare team with a back-to-back in the season’s home stretch and plays three games in four days on the road. Factor in 3 of their 6 games are against playoff games – and the Phoenix Suns are fighting for a play-in spot – and Golden State faces a brutal stretch.
Memphis Grizzlies
The six-seed Grizzlies (45-32) are tied with the Wolves but own the head-to-head tiebreaker.
- 4/5 at Detroit (42-34)
- 4/8 at Charlotte (19-57)
- 4/10 Minnesota (45-32)
- 4/11 at Denver (47-30)
- 4/13 Dallas (38-39)
Turmoil aside, the Grizzlies finish with back-to-back games against the Wolves, Nuggets, and Mavericks, who are in the play-in. Their final stretch may be easier than everyone else’s. However, they are 3-8 in their last 11, so it’s hard to pencil in more than 3 wins in the final 5.
LA Clippers
Finally, the LA Clippers (44-32) trail the Wolves by 0.5 games and are in the eighth seed.
- 4/5 Dallas (38-39)
- 4/8 Spurs (33-44)
- 4/9 Houston (50-27)
- 4/11 at Sacramento (36-40)
- 4/13 at Golden State (45-31)
The Clippers don’t have to leave California for the rest of the season. However, 5 of their 6 remaining games are against playoff or play-in teams. They also have two back-to-backs remaining. That means they play four games in six days, a grueling stretch, even with the home stretch.
Minnesota’s schedule will be its biggest advantage as the season ends. Looking around at the 3-8 seeded teams, all it will take is one team to fall for the Wolves to leap out of the play-in.
With only nine days to go in the season, the playoff seeding will be on everyone’s minds. Looking at each team’s schedule, the most likely outcome might be the Wolves finishing 4-1, finishing as the sixth seed, and meeting the Nuggets in the playoffs for the third straight season.