The Minnesota Timberwolves have a talented but flawed rotation. As the season comes to a close and uncertainty surrounding their seeding arises, one thing remains consistent.
If the rotation and minutes are not aligned come playoff time, the Wolves will not get very far.
Minnesota’s starting lineup features a mix of veterans Mike Conley, Rudy Gobert, and Julius Randle, as well as young players Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels. It has been unpredictable all season long. There have been moments of brilliance, like sweeping the Denver Nuggets. However, demoralizing losses, like their blown 24-point lead against Milwaukee on Tuesday, have created doubt heading into the playoffs.
Just when they seem to have figured it out, things fall apart again.
In 681 minutes played this season, the starting lineup has a 112 offensive rating and 111.5 defensive rating for a +0.5 net rating. Their 681 minutes played on the season are second in the league to the New York Knicks starting lineup. However, Minnesota’s starting lineup ranks tenth in net rating among the 14 lineups in the NBA with 300 or more minutes this season.
Lineups vary throughout a game, especially in the fourth quarter. Still, the Timberwolves’ starting lineup’s middling output is concerning.
Starting lineup data can be skewed because the opponent is likely putting their starting lineup on the floor during those minutes. Regardless, the Timberwolves’ starters have a lot of room for improvement as a unit.
How much concern is there with the starting lineup’s veterans in the playoffs?
Conley and Gobert have had an inconsistent season compared to last year. The typically reliable duo had slumped at the start of the season but have played some of their best basketball lately.
Over Conley’s last 15 games, he is averaging 9.7 points per game, with a 69.3% true shooting percentage. He’s shooting 51.8% on pull-up 3s and 54.3% on catch-and-shoot 3s.
Meanwhile, over Gobert’s last 15 games, he is averaging 14.7 points per game and 12.5 rebounds per game. It is his best offensive portion of the season.
Despite their recent form, Conley and Gobert have playoff red flags
Conley, 37, is a small and older guard. His pull-up 3-point shooting, ability to sort out defensive coverages during the game, and pick-and-roll ball-handler abilities are advantages to Minnesota’s offense. Still, Conley’s low usage can lead to offensive disorganization. At his age, the Wolves can’t rely on him to step into a larger role. Therefore, Conley’s offensive ceiling is capped, with little room for error before he becomes a detriment.
Conley is a nimble and smart defender, but due to his small stature, opponents will first target Conley when they are looking to create advantages offensively. If the Timberwolves want to hide Conley as a chase defender on shooters or in the corners, there are still ways for the opponent’s offenses to make him work. It will depend on the opponent’s personnel and size, but there are still real concerns with Conley come playoff time.
Rudy Gobert must provide some offense
Gobert must provide a spark offensively. Opponents are blitzing Edwards at an all-time high rate this season on ball screens because they are comfortable getting the ball out of Edwards’s hands and hopefully forcing Gobert to become a playmaker.
Gobert has improved in the short roll. However, as we saw in the conference finals series against the Dallas Mavericks last season, Edwards does not always trust Gobert, and Gobert doesn’t have the offensive skill to consistently work around the coverage or take advantage of the defense in rotation. Minnesota’s lineups and identity will completely shift if Gobert becomes a non-factor or complete negative on offense.
Julius Randle will also be an X-factor this year
Randle is a 10-year NBA veteran, but he has only played 15 career playoff games, where he has averaged 17.1 points per game on 34.4% from the field and 28.3% from 3. It is a new situation for Randle, and he is not being asked to be the primary offensive decision-maker for Minnesota, but he didn’t drive winning in the playoffs for the Knicks.
Luckily for Minnesota, Naz Reid, Donte DiVincenzo, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker give them plenty of toggle points off the bench to work around the potential issues they encounter with Conley, Gobert, and Randle.
Last season, Reid and Alexander-Walker unlocked Minnesota’s lineup versatility. They used their dynamic abilities to swap Karl-Anthony Towns or Gobert with Reid and replace McDaniels or Conley with Alexander-Walker.
DiVincenzo brings a different energy to this year’s roster
Despite the slow start to the season and a mid-season toe injury that forced him to miss 19 consecutive games. When DiVincenzo has been on the court, there is a different dynamic. His 3-point shooting gravity, defensive playmaking, and connective passing bring energy to Minnesota’s lineups without taking away from those around him.
Last season, the Timberwolves had a strong rotation. However, their final rotational spot, which came down to between Kyle Anderson and Monte Morris, didn’t provide much flexibility when they needed someone to play productive playoff minutes.
The ability to adapt based on the opponent is one of the most important traits a team can have come playoff time. Kyle Anderson was a good fit against Dallas in the Western Conference due to his playmaking ability and defense on Luka Doncic. However, he was not as good of a fit against the Denver Nuggets or the Phoenix Suns.
Morris was average at best with the Timberwolves, and his inability to provide a scoring punch as an undersized guard limited him from being effective in the playoffs.
DiVincenzo is a massive upgrade to the vacancy left behind by Anderson and Morris. He’s meaningfully better than then, has a game more tailored for playoff basketball, and offers much more flexibility to lineups.
It’s difficult to predict where the Timberwolves will finish and who their play-in or playoff matchup will be. Regardless of their matchup, Minnesota’s minute distribution should remain fluid. The extended bench of Reid, DiVincenzo, and Alexander-Walker needs to be a weapon for Minnesota.
If Conley, Randle, or Gobert don’t match up well against Minnesota’s first-round opponent, Chris Finch would be wise to toggle as many different looks as possible. If not, the Wolves risk a short playoff run after making the Western Conference Finals last year.