With just two games remaining in the regular season, the Western Conference standings are a jumbled mess. Which teams have the best chance of escaping the chaos and walking away with the Western Conference crown?
Two Games, One Destiny: The Wolves and the Wild, Wild West
Let’s start with the good news: if the Timberwolves win their final two games at Target Center—against the NBA’s version of the “Do Not Resuscitate” button in Brooklyn and Utah—they avoid the play-in tournament and officially punch their ticket to the real dance. That’s it. Two games. Two layups. Two gimmes. Two don’t-overthink-this moments. Beat the Nets. Beat the Jazz. Secure your fourth straight playoff appearance. Easy, right?
Well… not if you’ve been a Wolves fan for more than five minutes.
Because if you have, you know that this is the moment when the Timberwolves historically step on the rake. They walk up to opportunity’s door, politely knock, then somehow kick themselves in the groin before the door even opens. You’re already picturing Ant going 2-for-14 from three while someone like Svi Mykhailiuk drops 38 on us.
But this year? This year feels different.
The Wolves have won 15 of their last 19. They out-brawled Detroit. They body-bagged Memphis. They climbed Mt. Jokic and survived 61 points and double-overtime. And they’ve got momentum, cohesion, and—dare I say it—a sense of belief. You don’t go on a run like that in this Western Conference by accident. Especially not when the standings look like a game of Twister being played on a trampoline.
The Western Conference Traffic Jam
Here’s the current view of the West: five teams—Denver, the Clippers, the Warriors, Memphis, and your Minnesota Timberwolves—are separated by exactly one game. One!
That’s like a five-car pile-up on I-35 with playoff implications and no turn signals. It means two of those five teams will fall into the dreaded 7-8 play-in bracket, where one cold shooting night or one Jimmy Butler psychotic break from reality can send you home before the real party starts.
So yeah, winning these final two games matters. A lot.
The good news? Chaos is guaranteed. Denver and Memphis face off tonight. The Clippers and Warriors do battle on Sunday. Somebody’s losing. Probably multiple somebodies. All the Wolves have to do is not be one of those somebodies.
The Worst Prize for the Best Team
Meanwhile, the Oklahoma City Thunder—congrats, by the way—are sitting on a potential 68-win season, a +12.6 point differential, and a potential MVP in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Their reward? A possible first-round death match with Steph Curry, Kawhi Leonard, Nikola Jokic, or Anthony Edwards.
This is like winning the Powerball and then getting told your prize is a front-row seat at a Gallagher show—congrats, now here’s a sledgehammer to the face.
This Western Conference is brutal. No weak links. No guaranteed W’s. No “We’ll ease into the playoffs against the Kings” sort of vibes. Just 4-on-4 gladiator combat every night. You could put the Thunder, Nuggets, and Warriors into a random draw and end up with seven games that all feel like Game 7.
What the Fans Think
According to SB Nation’s latest react poll, 44% of fans believe OKC wins the West. That means 56% are taking the field, which feels… about right. The Thunder have been dominant. But playoff basketball is a different animal. It’s not about net rating—it’s about blood, sweat, rotations, and whether your role players turn into pumpkins after midnight.
When fans were asked which potential play-in team could make a run, the Warriors led the way at 43%. I mean, yeah—Steph Curry, postseason resume, knows all the cheat codes. Can’t argue with it. The Nuggets clocked in at 27% (even after firing their coach mid-week, which… what??). And the Wolves? A humble, shrugging 14%.
Here’s the thing: Minnesota might be the best value pick in the conference.
Western Conference Finals Odds: Value Hunting
Over at FanDuel Sportsbook, here’s what the West title board looks like:
- Thunder: -155
- Lakers: +650
- Warriors: +750
- Nuggets: +1000
- Clippers: +1600
- Timberwolves: +2400
Look, you could bet OKC at minus odds if you like tying up money on a team that could run into Luka Doncic in Round 2 and be done in six. Or you could take a flyer on a team like the Timberwolves, a team that:
- Made the conference finals last year
- Has a top-5 defense
- Just got healthy again
- Has Anthony Edwards playing like Michael Jordan if he grew up watching TikTok
- Is this close to the 5-seed
And you’re getting them at +2400? That’s not just value, that’s a coupon. It’s a scratch-off ticket where three quarters of the numbers are already matched.
Sure, betting on the Wolves carries baggage. We’ve all got the scar tissue from the Kevin Love years. The Kevin Garnett years. The Kevin Lynch (how’s that for a throwback?) years. But this team might finally be ready to flip the script.
And if not? At least you didn’t bet on the Nuggets right after they blew up their entire coaching staff.
The Bottom Line
Two games. Two wins. That’s all it takes. Beat the Nets. Beat the Jazz. Control your own destiny and waltz into the playoffs with a red-hot Anthony Edwards, a healthy Rudy Gobert, a locked-in Julius Randle, and a fanbase that—somehow, some way—still believes.
This is the time to cash in on a season’s worth of ups, downs, broken TVs, and suspicious officiating. The Wolves have a chance to make noise. A chance to prove that this isn’t just another tease.
Avoid the play-in. Get the 6-seed. Maybe even the 5.
Just don’t lose to the Jazz on Sunday. Please. For the love of Kevin Garnett’s legacy and our collective sanity—don’t step on the rake.
Let’s go, Wolves.