With just 17 games remaining on the Wolves schedule, Minnesota finds itself in a dead heat with three other teams to nab the sixth seed and avoid the play-in. Can the Wolves capitalize on a weak strength of schedule and guarantee themselves a seven-game series in April?
Wolves’ Playoff Push: Can They Avoid the Play-In?
The 2024-25 NBA season has been anything but predictable for Timberwolves fans. Coming off a Western Conference Finals run, this was supposed to be the year Minnesota leveled up—a chance to build on what was arguably the best season in franchise history. Instead, just days before the season tipped off, everything got turned upside down.
Karl-Anthony Towns traded to the Knicks.
Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo incoming from New York.
The Wolves scrambling to redefine themselves.
If it weren’t for Luka Doncic becoming a Laker, the Wolves’ franchise-altering shake-up would have gone down as the trade of the season. In the wake of the massive Towns trade, this season has felt like one long experiment in controlled chaos.
For months, the Wolves have hovered in that maddening middle tier of the Western Conference—too talented to fall out of the mix, too inconsistent to break through to the upper echelon. One day they look like a top-four seed, the next they’re losing to the Jazz and making me want to throw my laptop out the window.
But after surviving a brutal February, dealing with injuries to Randle, Gobert, DiVincenzo, and Conley, and watching Anthony Edwards get suspended for daring to question the NBA’s sacred officiating order, the Wolves are finally starting to hit their stride.
Now the question is simple:
Can they avoid the play-in?
The Playoff Race: Who’s Minnesota Actually Competing With?
Realistically, here’s where the Wolves stand:
- No possible shot at the No. 1 seed (OKC has that locked down).
- No realistic shot at catching Denver or the Lakers (unless LeBron decides to take two months off to film a sequel to “Space Jam” in April).
- No real threat from the Suns, Mavericks, or Blazers (who are just trying to keep their heads above water).
So that leaves us with the real battleground:
✅ Memphis Grizzlies (4th)
✅ Houston Rockets (5th)
✅ Golden State Warriors (6th)
✅ Minnesota Timberwolves (7th)
✅ Los Angeles Clippers (8th)
✅ Sacramento Kings (9th)
Memphis and Houston likely have enough cushion to avoid dropping down to the 7th spot. Which means, right now, there’s essentially one golden ticket out of the play-in, and you have four teams—Minnesota, Golden State, the Clippers, or Sacramento—vying for that single spot.
Two of those teams will likely make it through the basketball equivalent of the Hunger Games, a.k.a. the play-in tournament.
And one will have their season end abruptly and be stuck on the outside looking in.
Let’s break it down.
Strength of Schedule: The Wolves Have an Advantage
If you’re looking for reasons to believe in Minnesota, here’s the biggest one:
The Wolves have the easiest remaining schedule of any playoff contender.
Minnesota: 27th toughest schedule
Golden State: 12th
Clippers: 9th
Kings: 2nd
That means if Minnesota simply beats the teams they’re supposed to beat, they should finish ahead of the Warriors, Kings, and Clippers.
If they stay healthy, keep playing aggressive defense, and maintain their offensive rhythm, that No. 6 seed is there for the taking.
The Remaining Schedule: Can the Wolves Close Strong?
The Wolves have 17 games left.
By my count, 10 of those are against likely lottery teams.
If they handle their business, that’s 10 wins right there.
The real question: How do they handle the 7 tougher matchups?
Here’s what’s left:
Very Winnable Games (9)
- Utah (x2)
- New Orleans (x2)
- Brooklyn (x2)
- Philadelphia
- San Antonio
- Orlando
- Phoenix
Tougher Games (7)
- Denver (x2)
- Memphis
- Indiana (x2)
- Milwaukee
- Detroit
Let’s be optimistic and say the Wolves go 10-0 against the bad teams (which, yes, is asking a lot).
If they can simply take care of business, then they only need to go 3-4 in the tougher games to finish 13-4 down the stretch.
That very likely gets them the 6-seed.
If they drop a couple of those easier ones? That’s when things get dicey.
Sizing Up the Competition
Golden State Warriors (6th, Tied with Minnesota, Owns the Tie-breaker)
Biggest Threat to the Wolves.
- The Wolves do not hold the tiebreaker.
- The Warriors still have two games against Denver, plus matchups with the Lakers, Knicks, and Bucks.
- They also play Memphis and Houston—two other teams the Wolves are hoping to leapfrog.
Bottom line: The Wolves have to outplay Golden State in these last 17 games. With the way the Warriors are surging, it might not be enough for Minnesota to simply beat the bad teams. It may mean gaining ground by also knocking down teams like Denver and Memphis.
Los Angeles Clippers (8th, One Game Behind Wolves)
Brutal Schedule Incoming.
The Clippers still play Cleveland (x2), OKC, New York, Memphis, Houston, and Golden State.
If Minnesota just plays competent basketball, they should be able to stay ahead of the Clippers.
Sacramento Kings (9th, 1.5 Games Behind Wolves)
The Schedule from Hell.
Cleveland (x2), OKC, Boston, New York, Denver, Memphis.
Only six easy games left against teams with poor records, but even Portland is playing better now.
Prediction? The Kings free-fall to 9th or 10th.
The Wild Cards: Memphis & Houston
If the Wolves really want to make a move, they need to pass Memphis or Houston.
Memphis Grizzlies (4th, 4 Games Ahead of Wolves, Grizz hold the tie-breaker)
- Trending Downward (3-7 in last 10 games).
- Still play Cleveland, OKC, Boston, the Lakers, and Denver.
- Play Minnesota once more (HUGE game).
It’s possible Memphis keeps sliding. The Wolves just have to be there to capitalize if the floor really falls out from underneath the Grizz.
Houston Rockets (5th, 3 Games Ahead of Wolves, Tie-Breaker Up for Grabs)
- Relatively weak schedule, just not quite as weak as Minnesota’s.
- Still play OKC, Lakers (x2), Denver (x2), Golden State, and Clippers.
If Houston struggles against top-tier teams, the Wolves could steal their spot, but it would likely take a ridiculous tear down the stretch to catch the Rockets.
Final Predictions: Do the Wolves Make It?
Here’s how I think this plays out:
4th: Houston (Holds On, Weak Schedule Helps)
5th: Memphis (Barely Holds Off Wolves)
6th: Minnesota (Leapfrogs Golden State, Avoids Play-In!)
7th: Golden State (Tougher Schedule Sinks Them)
8th: Clippers (Brutal Schedule, No Depth)
9th: Kings (Too Many Tough Games Left)
10th: Dallas/Phoenix (Whichever Team Doesn’t Implode First)
The Best-Case Scenario?
Wolves win 13 of their last 17 games, lock in the 6-seed, and a third straight playoff series against Denver awaits.
Would it be ideal? No. Would it be entertaining as hell? Absolutely.
The key now? Handle business. Minnesota has put itself in position to control its own destiny.
Now it’s time to prove they belong.