After the Minnesota Timberwolves beat the Utah Jazz 116-105 in the season finale, Anthony Edwards offered his thoughts on what matchup he would prefer.
“I don’t give a damn,” he said. “Whoever. We ready.”
The Wolves locker room watched with the rest of the NBA world as the Los Angeles Clippers closed out the Golden State Warriors, 124-119. With all games completed, the Wolves learned they would be playing the Los Angeles Lakers, a team they have only played once since the Luka Doncic trade.
Minnesota played that game on February 27 and lost 111-102. Edwards picked up the infamous technical that caused him to be suspended in the following game against the Utah Jazz.
Arguably, the last time the Wolves played the Lakers, they were 24 hours away from their rock bottom moment, losing to Utah 117-116 the next night. Since that moment, the Wolves have gone 17-4 and surged to the postseason, finishing top ten in offense and defense for the second time in franchise history. The Wolves are a different team now, but so are the Lakers.
The Lakers are also a different team since acquiring Doncic on February 1. Doncic didn’t suit up for them until February 11 due to a left calf strain. However, the Lakers have been figuring out how to play with each other since he made his first start. They are 18-13 since Doncic joined the rotation. Over those 31 games, LA’s offensive rating finished in the middle of the pack at 115.6 (15th), and their defensive rating finished similarly mediocre at 114.1 (17th). Their 1.5 net rating is also 15th.
Wolves fans will understand the story of LA’s final 31 games. The Lakers have been slowly learning to play with each other and have had high highs and low lows. As a result, the aggregate of their advanced stats, team record, and play appears mediocre.
For example, with Doncic and LeBron James, they have a 1.71 assist-to-turnover ratio, ranking 25th in the NBA. LA’s 14.8% turnover percentage since the trade also ranks 25th. The Lakers posted a true shooting percentage of 59.3% (11th), and their 50.2% rebound percentage ranks 17th in the NBA. Almost every statistic is, again, mediocre. The Wolves rank higher than the Lakers in every advanced stat listed above.
The Lakers are still a work in progress, going through the same lumps the Wolves went through early in the season. LA’s new big three, Doncic, James, and Austin Reaves, have tried to log as many minutes together as possible. Despite this, the trio still only logged 407 minutes in total, mainly because the group has only played 20 games together due to injuries.
In those minutes, the grouping has a -1.8 net rating. They have a 48.9% rebound percentage and turn the ball over on 12.7% of possessions. Doncic, James, and Reeves rebound less than half of the available rebounds, turn the ball over roughly once every nine possessions, and are a net negative for their team.
On paper, the Wolves would appear to have the upper hand. Since Doncic debuted on February 11, they are fifth in net rating (8.1), sixth in offensive rating (119.4), and eighth in defensive rating (111.3). The Timberwolves have the fifth-best assist-to-turnover ratio (2.15), the fifth-best turnover percentage (13.0%), and eighth in true shooting (59.6%). Minnesota’s starting five has logged 714 minutes compared to LA’s starting unit, which only has 108.
The data suggests the Wolves should be able to outmatch a Lakers team struggling to find itself. However, consternation about the matchup is warranted. In James and Doncic, the Lakers will have two of the top three players in the series and two players with basketball IQs that will make them into the Hall of Fame. Only time will tell who wins the series, but the Wolves will have chemistry on their side.