It’s no secret that the Western Conference standings are a mess. At 31-25, the Minnesota Timberwolves are in seventh place, a spot below the six guaranteed playoff spots. While they are just one game back from the sixth-place Los Angeles Clippers, they are only four games ahead of the 11th-place Phoenix Suns, who would not even make the play-in tournament.
The Wolves have a mixed schedule that kicks off straight after the break, and they will surely benefit from having injured players receive some extra rest. The break was good timing for Donte DiVincenzo, Julius Randle, Mike Conley, and Rudy Gobert, who all missed the final pre-break matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder. It will also have been a much-needed rest for Anthony Edwards, who has been playing through minor issues.
Minnesota begins the post-break schedule with an away game against the Houston Rockets, a team they beat 127-114 on Feb. 7. The Rockets have been in free fall over the last few weeks, especially since lead guard Fred VanVleet injured his ankle. Since that was a week-to-week injury, VanVleet might return against Minnesota.
The Rockets game is important, given they are one of the teams above the Wolves that they will be hoping to chase down. Houston is fourth in the West with a 34-21 record, just 3.5 games ahead of the Timberwolves. It’s only late February, but this game might have ramifications at the end of the regular season. The Wolves cannot take lightly an opponent they perceive to be better than, as they did earlier this season.
That’s even more pivotal, given that their next two games will be against the Oklahoma City Thunder. The NBA has scheduled an unusual back-to-back, with the first game in Minnesota on Feb. 23 and the second tipping off less than 24 hours later in Oklahoma. They are two teams who know each other well, and the Wolves cannot afford to come out of the All-Star break with poor, sloppy losses that will inevitably send them sliding down the standings.
In Minnesota’s slow start to the season, it’s only 16-18 against teams over .500. Meanwhile, they are a respectable 15-7 against teams below .500. However, that number might be even better without the disappointing losses to teams like the Portland Trail Blazers and Washington Wizards earlier in the season.
After the doubleheader against the best team in the West with another difficult matchup, this time against the 32-20 Los Angeles Lakers. L.A. has a new-look roster, with Luka Doncic swapped in for Anthony Davis and Max Christie after one of the most ridiculous trades in NBA history.
The Wolves have yet to face the Lakers with Luka. They will likely feel confident about their ability to get Edwards and others to the rim without the prospect of facing Davis, an elite defensive center. With various wing defenders to throw at the usually unstoppable Doncic, the Wolves might feel this matchup suits them okay despite facing Doncic and the ageless LeBron James. Not only are the Lakers only three games ahead of them in the Western Conference, but this is also likely a team they may need to consider as a potentially challenging playoff matchup for later down the line.
Minnesota will still need to strengthen its record against the bad teams in the league. The Wolves follow the challenging opening four games post-break with six against teams below .500 in the standings.
First, the Wolves will play the Utah Jazz on the road in a crucial banana peel game to avoid losing. However, they will then travel to Arizona to play the Phoenix Suns. Phoenix appears to have a new issue each week this season. Despite the star power of Kevin Durant and Devin Booker, they sit 11th in the West at 26-28. The Suns are the focal point of many rumors, and they reportedly will part with Durant at the end of the season. Still, it is a game that the Wolves must win.
After playing in Phoenix, the Wolves have a three-game run against bad Eastern Conference teams, including the Philadelphia 76ers, Charlotte Hornets, and Miami Heat. They then finish the run of below .500 teams by welcoming the San Antonio Spurs to Minnesota, a team who appear as though they might not be far from preparing to ease off and finish the season with a record bad enough to ensure a high draft pick.
However, the Spurs have never been a team to take lightly, and trading for De’Aaron Fox – a player who recently scored a career-high 60 points against Minnesota – means they cannot be underestimated. They might not be looking to win much more this season, and in Fox and Victor Wembenyama, the Spurs have two players who can win games for them on any night.
It is a mixed schedule for the Wolves after the break, and after a challenging opening four games, six games against below .500 opposition might be what breaks the season. If the Wolves can go 7-3 or better in the next 10 games, they will feel far more positive about finishing in the playoffs and preparing to make a run in the Western Conference – something that seemed almost impossible to consider just a few months ago.