I asked Chris Finch a nagging question that was on my mind after the Minnesota Timberwolves lost 119-115 to the New Orleans Pelicans as a 12.5 underdog on Thursday.
Does stagnant ball movement affect the defense?
“Yeah, it definitely does,” Finch responded. “A lot of guys in the NBA didn’t get here by defending. They got here by being offensive players, and getting them to play defense at a high level is sometimes a little bit more of a challenge.
“Many of these guys view the game from an offensive lens,” Finch continued, “so if things aren’t going well for them on that end… human nature dictates that maybe it bothers them a little more than it should.”
Mike Conley shared the same sentiment after practice.
“I think our offense affects the way we defend sometimes,” he said. “When it gets sticky, when it gets (into) iso ball or things get stagnant.”
“We’re not focused on the right things defensively,” Conley concluded. “We just have to find a way to avoid letting things affect us individually.”
Nickeil Alexander-Walker also shared insight on how the lack of ball movement can derail the team.
“Sometimes it can be frustrating,” he said. “But at the end of the day, we have to understand that we’re not always going to make the right play.”
Minnesota’s ball movement has been an issue all season. It directly correlates with the team’s winning or losing, and more importantly, it affects their defensive intensity.
The Wolves have 27.1 assists per game in their wins this season 27.1 assists per game. As a result, they have a 64.4 assist percentage, or the number of baskets that come with an assist.
In losses, the Wolves cobbled together 24.1 assists, which resulted in a slightly lower 63.0% assist percentage. However, the Timberwolves average 87.8 shots per game in wins and 86.7 in losses. That means the three extra assists come on similar shot attempts per game.
That’s important to highlight because the Wolves average 3.8 more made shots in wins. Given that they average 3.0 more assists per game in wins, it suggests those extra makes likely are due to the ball movement more often than a player making three more shots on their own.
So, how does that correlate to defense?
The Wolves’ defense is elite in wins, producing a 106.0 defensive rating. If they played that level of defense in all of their games, it would be better than the Oklahoma City Thunder’s top-ranked defense (106.1).
However, they experience a significant drop-off in losses, sinking to a 117.0 defensive rating. If they carried that rating for the entire season, they would rank 27th, between the Washington Wizards and Philadelphia 76ers.
Therein lies the connection to ball movement. Minnesota’s players and staff emphasized improving ball movement in December.
“Making sure everyone is touching the ball or even giving them easy looks,” Jaden McDaniels said regarding how offensive can help defense, “just to give them that energy to make them want to come down and play defense.”
The drop-off defensively without ball movement is evident. Opposing teams shoot 7.0% better from 3 in Minnesota’s losses, and opponents score 2.1 points more off of turnovers in the losses. Opponents score 1.2 more points on fastbreaks and outrebound the Wolves by 2.8 per game.
All of this may seem circumstantial. However, the 71-game sample size indicates a trend in games the Wolves lose by a large margin across the board statistically. They tend to get outworked specifically in hustle categories such as fast break points, rebounds, and 3-point shooting, in which hard closeouts affect shot percentages.
Given the date and what the Wolves players and head coach said, it is safe to say the ball movement on offense likely affects all of the hustle statistics, which affects the defense. As Conley said, the Wolves were not focused on the right things defensively, which meets the eye test.
When shots aren’t falling, players don’t hustle back as fast. When a player shoots early in the possession without passing the ball, players likely aren’t as motivated to close out hard on a 3-point shot the other way.
That all leads to something Rudy Gobert said early in the season related to ball movement.
“I think it’s about feeling connected… whatever you do in life, when you feel connected, you are more likely to give your best,” he said. “When we are disconnected at times offensively, I think it carries over to the defense.”
Therein lies the truth of the Wolves season. When the Timberwolves feel connected, they move the ball. Everyone gives extra effort, and they look like a team that can beat anyone. When the ball movement isn’t there, and when they aren’t connected, the defense falls off, they don’t make hustle plays, and anyone can beat them.
If there is a bright side, the Wolves have games left this season in which they can correct this issue and still make a playoff run. The first part of solving a problem is identifying what is wrong.