The Julius Randle Decision Shouldn’t Be Difficult

What was seen as a conundrum heading into this offseason is starting to make a little bit more sense down the stretch.

In the dwindling seconds of a disappointing loss to the Golden State Warriors on January 15, Julius Randle got up from the bench in the waning seconds of the game and, in a trademark form of forward movement for him at that point in time, sauntered back to the locker room, beating his teammates there.

It was a game that stamped a theme during his continued decrease of time in the closing lineup. He wore it on his body language.

Players typically don’t leave the locker room super early if they play. Typically, they stick around, chop it up with their teammates, and spend some time at their locker reflecting on the game.

After that January 15 game, Randle left the locker room in street clothes early, before we were allowed in for postgame media availability, an uncommon occurrence. Clearly not happy about the way the game had gone and his lack of time at the end of the game to help control that, he was silent, straight-faced, and reflective of another head-scratching night on the floor (8-18 from the field, two turnovers).

It was another chapter in the book of Randle with the Minnesota Timberwolves and his lackluster body language. Essentially, a player on an expiring contract who wanted to get paid, even as someone who wants to give players the benefit of the doubt and time, it further solidified the opinion that Randle was someone that the team must move on from. Whether at the deadline or in the summer, it was simply holding the team back from a young group of talented players achieving bigger things together and enjoying each other’s presence on the floor.

The vibes weren’t necessarily good. The clips of Randle jogging back on defense ran rampant on the infamous NBA troll accounts. They weren’t wrong.

But something changed after that Golden State game. Where things seemed to be at the nadir in the Randle experience at that point in time, the tension that had been built up and the seeming toe-tapping that was happening for the season to be over vanished.

It’s taken the outlook on the Julius Randle tenure to a near-complete 180. Is he scoring as much? Not particularly, but in legitimate overnight fashion, he melded himself to not only fit much better with the structure of the roster but also give an idea of what perhaps a longer-term outlook as a member of the Timberwolves might look like.

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Reactionary? Maybe.

The sample sizes are going to be lopsided, but it’d be a disservice to say that a lot of this isn’t written on gut feel. The recent trends have felt bankable because the adjustments in Randle’s game are low-effort changes that make a big impact. I’ll be looking a lot at the sample size of the 7.5 games that Randle played before being ruled out with a groin strain.

The reasoning is simple – the reality exists that Randle was playing his best team basketball in a Wolves uniform, and it didn’t have much to do with his counting stats. The gut-wrenching, eye-clawing offensive possessions of iso ball with no intention of passing cut back to almost zero. The contested shots while teammates stood in the corners wide-open got better. In the stretch of the last eight games, Randle is fifth on the team in assist-to-turnover ratio with 2.4, almost twice as good as the 1.3 mark he notched over the first couple months of the season (near dead last among active players on the roster).

These are repeatable, basic things that make a world of difference.

The strange part is that it’s come at the expense of a pretty defiant hit to his overall stats. Averaging 19.6 points on 47 percent shooting from the field, he had since dipped after the game against the Warriors to 17 points per game on 42 percent shooting (17 percent from three), including a six-shot, eight-point game in his return to Madison Square Garden.

It’s not as warranting of a camera flash, but something turned that made him comfortable to take more of a reflexive position in the offense, asserting himself when needed and not as proactively.

The defensive effort has ramped up as well, and the ability to use him as a primary defender on bigs while his frontcourt partner Rudy Gobert roams has become an option that Head Coach Chris Finch was able to go to.

Even in the new environment of roster construction in the NBA with the second apron, this Wolves team is the best version of itself when it has the decision between a platoon of Randle, Gobert, and Naz Reid to close games based on who’s playing well and what the game is presenting. Even from a net rating perspective, they all help each other no matter which committee finds themselves on the floor.

PBP stats

The Reid-Randle pairing is especially interesting. Struggling to rebound at the beginning of the season and not bringing much pop offensively, it’s been a pair that Finch has used to close with recently and is effective at generating buckets, with a 117 offensive rating over the last seven games Randle played. It’s a dynamite option for pace and getting up and down the floor and playing a faster style, something more difficult to achieve with Gobert on the floor.

Another group that struggled early on was the starting unit of Mike Conley – Anthony Edwards – Jaden McDaniels – Randle – Gobert. Based on two-man pairing data, Randle now has positive net ratings with every player in that lineup over this stretch, as well as one of the better connections on the team with recently minted starting point guard Donte DiVincenzo, something that’s been acknowledged by Finch in the past.

Simple, repeatable things Randle adjusted to that have made this team better in the aggregate. He’s a component of a dynamic frontcourt and makes for an advantage over other teams in how the Wolves can deploy their heavy personnel.

With a committee of three bigs that are all elite at different things, this team is the best version of itself.

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How Does This Become Possible?

It’s been talked about ad nauseam. The decision looms this offseason between Naz Reid, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and Randle.

Two of which are essentially expiring and looking for longer-term deals in Reid and Randle, one straight up expiring in Alexander-Walker, who’s been one of the more enjoyable players to watch and interview while covering the team.

The question becomes, what do you incrementally lose in Alexander-Walker, who will likely warrant a near-mid-level exception at 13-15 million dollars that you can’t try to fill with young guys you currently have kicking down the door for minutes?

It may not end up being a 1:1 replacement, but these are the types of decisions that have to be made in the current roster-building environment. You have to rely on the players you drafted at some point, right?

Acknowledging there could be politics with Reid and Randle in this situation (who’s starting, who makes what), the common pushback to this will be “Reid can easily replace Randle, he’s been better than him in the starting lineup.”

While that sentiment is valid, the frontcourt scoring luxury is something that a lot of teams around the league don’t really have. What happens when Naz goes through a stretch like he did against the Cleveland Cavaliers and Milwaukee Bucks? He turns around for a career game against Oklahoma City. But it’s a roller coaster ride, even for one of the most skilled bigs I’ve ever watched. Both guys having relief for each other, a more touch and finesse-oriented scorer in Reid and a down-low bruiser in Randle is an incredibly hard rotation to plan against.

Simply put, Anthony Edwards needs scoring support, and having that come in the form of a multiple-option frontcourt that can close together is something that you need to keep intact, even if it comes at the cost of Alexander-Walker doing the latter of his last name and moving on this offseason.

Time will only tell. It’s a small stretch of games that have turned the team around. But as of now, it’s yet another sign to point to that an 82-game season can seemingly seal someone’s offseason fate, only to have you turn around and question everything.