After practice on Nov. 25, Chris Finch spoke on the Minnesota Timberwolves’ low assist percentage.
“We have two guys that are creating a lot of their own offense right now, and when they do kick it out, shots haven’t been falling all that much. It makes sense,” said Finch, who paused before continuing. “I don’t see it as part of a problem, necessarily, if that makes sense.”
Finch later returned to the assist topic when a reporter asked him directly: Do you care that this may be a low assist team?
“I mean, I care that we win,” Finch said with a smile. “If we get two assists a night and win. Ideally, you want to move the ball and create easy shots. Of course, you want a lot of assisted field goals. That’s indicative of a team that’s sharing the ball. But I don’t lose sleep over those types of things.”
At the time, the Wolves had returned home after losing a promising game to the Boston Celtics, 107-105. The Timberwolves dropped to 8-8 and lost their next two games, dipping to a season-worst two games under .500.
However, they followed that up with a four-game winning streak in which Minnesota’s ball movement seemed to improve meaningfully. Arguably, the change in ball movement from the 8-10 start to the 4-0 win streak is the single biggest factor in the difference in performance.
At the 18-game mark, the Wolves ranked 22nd in assist percentage (percentage of made baskets that come off assists) at 60.8%. At 8-10, the Timberwolves ranked one place behind the 2-15 Washington Wizards, who ranked last on offensive rating at the time. Minnesota’s low assist percentage caused their assist-to-turnover ratio to rank 24th; coincidentally, this also ranked one place behind the Wizards.
Typically, Finch’s Wolves teams have never necessarily been superb but at least above average, making this similarity between the Timberwolves and Wizards odd. Last season, the Wolves ranked 12th (64.6%). In 2022-23, the Wolves also ranked 12th (61.0%). The year before that? 10th (61.7%) in 2021-22. That’s all while Finch has been pushing the team for ball movement, cohesion, and flow. When the Wolves find the flow, as Finch calls it, they elevate to another level entirely.
During Minnesota’s four-game winning streak, their offensive rating ranked 25th in the league (106.1). Their assist-to-turnover ratio remained poor (1.63), and Minnesota’s true shooting percentage of 58.2% remained middle of the pack, ranking 18th.
The change happened with Minnesota’s defense, as their 87.7% defensive rating suggests. But underneath that, the Wolves also finally found their elusive flow. They assisted on a league-best 77.8% of their baskets.
That suggests intentionality in their offense: direct plays and passes that result in makes. That keeps players involved in the offense and more willing to defend. Looking back at Minnesota’s Nov. 29 victory over the LA Clippers, six Wolves had three or more assists, and all eight players scored at least eight points.
Five Wolves players had three or more assists in their Dec. 2 win over the Los Angeles Lakers, including 13 total from bench players Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Donte DiVincenzo. Alexander-Walker and DiVincenzo posted defensive ratings under 87.0 for the game. Seven players also had eight or more points.
It was the same story in Minnesota’s Dec. 4 rematch with the Clippers. They had five players with three or more assists and eight with eight or more points. In their Dec. 6 win over the Warriors, five players had three or more assists, and six players scored eight or more. The ball movement has had a direct correlation to the wins. Multiple players get multiple assists and opportunities to score, which likely transfers to the defensive side.
The most clear-cut statistic is that in wins, the Wolves have a 68.2% assist per game and a 103.4 defensive rating. In losses, the Timberwolves post a 58.1% assist percentage and a 113.6 defensive rating. Minnesota averages 1 more assist per 10 baskets, allowing roughly ten fewer points defensively during a game.
In Minnesota’s most recent loss to the Warriors, which ended the four-game win streak, they stopped moving the ball. In the first half, the Wolves posted a 71.4% assist percentage and a 104.3 defensive rating en route to a 58-49 lead at halftime. The third quarter began, and Minnesota’s wheels fell off. Their assist percentage cratered to 33.3%, and their defensive rating ballooned to 176.0. Golden State took a three-point lead into the fourth after outscoring the Wolves by nine.
In the fourth quarter, the Wolves reverted to the ball movement offense for most of it, evidenced by their 66.7% assist percentage, which again correlated with the defensive improvement (100 defensive rating). However, the late-game offense fell into isolation with heavy drives by Anthony Edwards, and the Warriors ended up cruising to victory.
“I care,” Finch said, “that we win.” It seems wins come with ball movement and flow, something Finch has seemingly been trying to implore the Wolves to embrace for years. With a slow start to the season, the evidence is mounting that the Timberwolves will have to embrace Finches’ system if they want to be in contention for a title.