Julius Randle immediately fell in love with Minnesota.
“Just getting out and seeing the city and everything, the lakes, everything, it’s been amazing,” Randle said during training camp. “I really didn’t know what to expect. I just knew it was cold, but it’s beautiful here.”
The Minnesota Timberwolves are 11-0 in the past eleven games that Randle has played. They are 33-21 on the season with Randle, a 61.1% win percentage, which is 4.4% better than Minnesota’s overall 56.7% win percentage. Based on that statistic alone, the Wolves are a better team with Randle on the floor. That only solidifies Randle’s value this season and perhaps into the future with the Wolves.
Minnesota’s win percentage with Randle has fans conflicted. Some want Randle to return to the Timberwolves long-term. Others worry that accepting Randle’s player option or re-signing would jeopardize Minnesota’s ability to re-sign players. However, if Randle opts out and walks away, it’s the worst-case scenario for the Wolves. His contract is a cap asset, and they would lose it.
Ironically, re-signing Randle may be the most clean-cut way for the Wolves to keep their team together.
Randle is a four-time All-Star and the featured piece the Knicks sent to Minnesota in the Karl-Anthony Towns trade. Immediately, people saw the trade as a cost-saving measure that allowed them to re-sign Naz Reid and Nickeil Alexander-Walker in the 2025-26 offseason. Randle has a $33.1 million cap hit this year, which would come off the books when he declines his 2025-26 player option. The Wolves could split that money between Alexander-Walker and Reid, who will demand raises on their extensions.
However, the reality of the situation is much more ambiguous. To fully see Randle’s impact on the summer of 2025-26, it’s important to understand Minnesota’s cap situation.
If Reid declines his player option and other free agents like Joe Ingles and some two-way players come off the books, the Wolves will be roughly $66 million over the cap, which we can get to by adding in the money of these cap holds that come off the books. Objectively, that doesn’t sound good. However, the NBA has a complicated multi-layer soft cap system, so it’s typical for a competitive team. If Randle declined his player option, the Wolves would still be $36 million over the cap, and any team over the cap cannot sign any free agents from other teams.
Minnesota doesn’t benefit from Randle opting out. They get no cap assistance; it doesn’t open up any possibilities for signing players they already wouldn’t have had. That’s because, at $66 million over the cap, the Wolves are $24 million under the first apron and roughly $36 million under the second – the most important number. To reiterate, $66 million over the cap is with Randle opting in, Naz Reid declining his player option, and keeping Alexander-Walkers rights to re-sign him as a returning player. It also factors in accepting team options on Luka Garza, Leonard Miller, and Josh Minott.
Conversely, suppose the Wolves decide not to trade Randle and bring him back on his player option. The next step in the process would be the NBA draft, in which the Detroit Pistons’ lottery-protected first-rounder is expected to convert because they look like they’ll make the first round this year. Depending on positioning, that pick has an estimated $3-4 million cap hit, but let’s call it four million for this breakdown. The Wolves would likely use that pick to add depth on a team-controlled contract, placing them at $32 million under the second apron.
As the NBA calendar rolls into July, the Wolves will have to re-sign Reid, who’s set for a big pay increase, between $28 and $35 million annually, because that is the going rate for a quality starting center in the NBA. Alexander-Walker is also likely due a raise in the $12 to $20 million range annually.
That’s where the NBA salary cap gets tricky. The initial talks of Towns being a second-apron salary-related move distract from Minnesota’s financial flexibility.
For this example, let’s say the Wolves sign Reid to a massive 3-year $105 million contract worth $35 million per year. The NBA only allows teams to enter the second apron by re-signing their players. Let’s also say Alexander-Walker inks a 2-year, $36 million deal the same day, adding $18 million to Minnesota’s cap.
That would put the Wolves firmly above the second apron. Based on these examples, which are the higher end, they would be $21 million over the second apron. After signing a couple of two-way players to round out the roster, they’re likely $25 million into the second apron.
Here is where facts and narratives collide because the second apron cripples team building. Minnesota would enter the 2025-26 season unable to combine players in a trade again, and they wouldn’t be able to sign buyouts or free agents above the minimum. The Wolves couldn’t take back any extra money in a trade or sign and trade a player. The league would freeze their first-round pick seven years into the future for the second straight season, meaning they wouldn’t be able to trade it under any circumstances.
However, the NBA doesn’t apply the full wrath of the second apron until a team is in it for three out of five seasons, and Minnesota would be in it for a second season. The increased penalties focus on all frozen picks seven years out getting moved to the end of the first round regardless of record, and that continues until a team isn’t in the second apron for three seasons. It’s a nightmare scenario where the league freezes five consecutive years of draft picks, and they lose almost all value.
Looking at Minnesota in 2025-26, though. In the scenario where Randle opts in and figuratively keeps the band back together, the roster-building penalties likely wouldn’t have much effect. The Wolves would return with a remarkable level of depth. All five of their current starters, Donte DiVincenzo, Alexander-Walker, Reid, Terrence Shannon Jr, Rob Dillingham, and Jaylen Clark, the player they take with the Detroit pick, would round out their 12-man rotation. They won’t have much need to make a trade or add free agents.
Being in the second apron for two of four years would mean they couldn’t enter the apron again until 2029-30 to avoid the harshest penalties. Still, strategically, if the offseason plays out like I laid out above, the Wolves could safely slide back under the apron naturally. They have Mike Conley‘s expiring contract, the cap naturally rising yearly, and other long-term cap holds falling off. They could offer Randle a lucrative extension and still settle under the apron.
However, there’s a risk with this proposed off-season plan. The team Minnesota has constructed, even with expected improved play from Anthony Edwards, Reid, and McDaniels in 2025-26, isn’t enough to win a championship. The proposed plan is a massive gamble that they have enough in-house to make jumping into the second apron again worth it.
Likely, the remaining games of the season and how the Wolves play in the postseason will dictate if this is the route they take. And the Timberwolves can only take these paths if they opt in this summer.