In The Loopus: A Lopsided Set of Predictions

As the playoffs begin, it’s time to take a deeper look at the bracket… In the Loopus style.

It’s that time of year again. The birds are chirping. My apartment is already overheating from the lack of a cross-draft. People are campaigning for another Jokić MVP despite a well-deserving frontrunner.

Nature is healing, it seems, which means fans are going to be just as, if not more, infuriating than ever. It comes with the territory. Fans are going to get invested and biased as their teams advance. And while Niko Harrison is hiding in the bunker, that is an inflated ego and hyper-aggrandized perception of self, the rest of the NBA community will be watching for the next domino to fall.

Last year, it was the development of teams’ identities through the play of their power forwards and big rotations. The year before that, it was about finding just enough supplementary juice from your bench players to make enough noise. The year before that, it was a question of injuries vs talent, and how much availability matters when dropping even one game is all it takes.

Considering there’s a lesson every year, one that becomes obsolete another 365 days after it’s learned, it’s exciting to see what it will be. One thing is for certain, however. Despite the Denver Nuggets managing to clinch the fourth seed and the Memphis Grizzlies sneaking into the Playoffs, that lesson will not be to fire your franchise’s best coach of all time a few weeks before May basketball rolls around.

Let’s get into it.

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The Ones who Eight

There is never going to be someone out there who, in good faith, takes the eight seed over the one seed without being one of three things: a homer, a troll, or a 2K addict. I wouldn’t say never, but there’s a reason why it happens so rarely. Even as I, someone who had 10 seed Vanderbilt making the Elite Eight, say this, I want to cushion fans of the Grizzlies and Miami Heat that it is unlikely you will win your series, but it can still be fun.

Memphis Grizzlies vs Oklahoma City Thunder

In a Sentence: If a bear falls in a storm, does it make a sound? Isn’t Thunder just a sound?

On paper, the Grizzlies don’t match up with the already overpowering Thunder. Alex Caruso and Lu Dort present challenges for Desmond Bane and, more notably, Ja Morant, while Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein neutralize a frontcourt of Zach Edey and Jaren Jackson Jr.

On the court, well, the Grizzlies haven’t beaten the Thunder since 2022.

Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (go download the app) and Alexey Pokusevski started that game for the Thunder. Eugene Omoruyi played 25 minutes!

There is next to no universe in which the Grizzlies win this series. Statistically speaking, there is no way anyone out west can stop the Thunder, but the hope for Memphis this series should be figuring out why only one of Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr can succeed at the same time.

It’s been a trend stretching back to the early days of Taylor Jenkins. When the offense would feature Morant’s up-tempo, pick and roll heavy play, Jackson Jr would look like Jonas Jerebko in support. When Jaren had the best year of his career this year, likely resulting in an All-NBA performance, it came to the tune of career lows in all regards for Morant.

The Grizzlies have real, serious problems. They are missing Jaylen Wells, their only perimeter defender able to inspire any hope, after a scary fall and a disappointing sophomore slump from Vince Williams. They failed to make any sort of consolidation trade since drafting Morant second overall in 2019 and Bane in 2020.

This is a team that lacks a cohesive identity. It’s a team that now lacks a consistent voice after letting go of Taylor Jenkins, who should’ve been fired, don’t get me wrong. They are rudderless. They are out to sea in a boat without a sail, without the oars to save themselves. Without paddles, they are now drifting into a storm. Either they pray they drift to land and can fix the boat, or they will cling to its frame as they are shattered.

This should be the start of a great many changes coming for Memphis. The next few weeks are unimportant for them in comparison to the next few months.

Well, at least they’re not the Mavericks.

Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

Cleveland Cavaliers vs Miami Heat

In a Sentence: The Andrew Wiggins revenge series, AKA Depth vs Discounts

First things first…

Davion Mitchell believers, where are we at? This is such a wonderful moment for us. Davion has by no means been good, and he is still the exact same player he was as a rookie in Sacramento. The role he provides has one small niche of bothering small guards and making their lives difficult until they simply give up. Unfortunately for Trae Young, that was exactly what the Heat needed to take down the Atlanta Hawks.

Now, for the Heat, this series is not reminiscent of their run to the finals as an eighth seed just a few years ago. This Cavs team, were it not for the heights that the Thunder have reached this year, would be the talk of the league.

Additionally, no matter how hard I try to frame this Miami roster as Andrew Wiggins’ playground of childlike wonder and attained aspirations, this is team so hugely dependent on Tyler Herro that it is baffling they’ve made it this far. Jaime Jacquez has dissipated like a puddle in the sun and didn’t register a single minute in the play in. Terry Rozier is currently trapped in a RICO case. There is no other option.

While the Cavs have their question marks, notably, can the depth that powered them through the regular season succeed in the playoffs? The deep bench of Cleveland is filled with one-note specialists. No matter how good you are at one skill, the playoffs are the time of year when your strengths only matter insofar as they outweigh your weaknesses.

The Heat know this well, as Duncan Robinson is no longer a postseason player. What will happen to Ty Jerome and Dean Wade? What about Sam Merrill? You can catch the league by surprise for one year and one year only. This is that chance for Cleveland.

Two Seven or Not Two Seven

This is where you start being allowed to pick an upset. Since the turn of the century, only two seven-seeds have upset a second seed. There is a bit of a blueprint for how to do it, though.

The 2023-24 Los Angeles Lakers were an old, well-rounded team that played hard defense that went against the Memphis Grizzlies, a young, undisciplined team that saw Dillon Brooks shoot them out of multiple fourth quarters.

The 2009-10 Spurs were, ostensibly, an old, well rounded team that played hard defense that went against the Dallas Mavericks, who were just as old and simply collapsed in five games.

So the trick is, go against a team when they’re at their weakest and grind away at them in hopes that they shatter themselves. With that in mind, do the Golden State Warriors or Orlando Magic fit that criteria?

No.

Sorry to spoil it, but even if the Warriors have the better chance, it’s not looking likely for either.

Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets

In a Sentence: Reopening old wounds, deeper than before, or finally healing them.

No one really expected Houston to go from the worst record in the conference for two years to solidly okay for one back down to bad for another, and then suddenly, inexplicably, jump up to the second seed without major changes to the roster.

During the last ITL, I wrote about how there is no team that needs a consolidation trade as much as the Rockets do. That remains true. None of Alperun Şengün, Jalen Green, or any of their rotting young players outside of Amen Thompson are good enough to lead a team through four straight playoff series.

The good news is that’s not the expectation, nor should it be. The bad news is that the lack of a true franchise centerpiece means that people will be taking the Warriors this series due to the sheer lack of top 15-20 players on their team.

It’s hard to discount the Rockets in the first round. They do things that translate well in the playoffs. They play excellent defense and rebound at an elite level. The Steven Adams – Şengün pairing has been a ridiculous refusal of the status quo. Spacing is irrelevant when you add an extra 12 possessions a game just by hitting the offensive glass.

In theory, this should be easy. I think it still kind of is. But, there is so much to worry about with Houston. It’s hard to argue against the fact that the two best players in this series play for Golden State.

However, there may just be more wrong with the Warriors. Adding an extra playmaker and creator alongside Steph Curry in Jimmy Butler has been a revelation, but their closing lineup still features three players who outright refuse to shoot.

On the season, the two man lineup featuring Kevon Looney and Draymond Green is -20.9 in net rating. Green and Gary Payton II are a middling +4.1. When the three share the court, they are a whopping, disgusting -31.3 in net rating. Their offensive rating is a shocking 85.7.

While this is obviously the statistical equivalent of dust in the wind, when those three shared the court for one singular minute in the Play-In, their net rating was -200.

The Warriors have seemingly shifted away from these lineups, but that lineup was their go to when facing supersized lineups. They are facing a supersized team. It’s something to worry about.

It’s easy to point at Steph and Butler, their success since the deadline, and the podcaster who will fortunately not claim DPOY honors, and see a complete overload of talent on Golden State’s side. It’s equally easy to see the backslide the Rockets had mid-season and talk yourself into an upset.

Unfortunately, the only answer I can give is an unsatisfying one. The series will come down to who can force the other out of their strengths first.

If the Rockets can keep playing big and forcing the Warriors to keep their offensively inept equivalent on the court, they’ll win it easily. If the Warriors can force the Rockets to stagger their bigs and move away from what got them here, their experience and better top talent will take over.

Boston Celtics vs Orlando Magic

In a Sentence: David v Goliath, if the slingshot was misfitting knee pads and a paper straw.

Lol. Lmao even.

There is no universe in which this series will be close. While the Warriors are running into a talented group of youngsters with no experience, the Magic have the joy of running into a buzzsaw and splattering into chunks of flesh after a failed jump in Super Meat Boy.

There’s not much to say here. Last year, the Magic went toe to toe with the Cavs before their offensive struggles cropped up in the fourth quarter of game seven, leading to a drought that saw them lose a 20-point lead and the series.

While the Cavs changed their coaching staff and restructured their offense to feature a plethora of other players with real emphasis on maximizing both of their guards AND both of their bigs, the Magic failed to make any notable change whatsoever. They signed Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who has been solidly okay but has not changed much, and drafted Tristan Da Silva, who has been good but not good enough to move the needle.

This is the most passive front office in the NBA. The last time the Magic made a trade was in 2023, when they acquired Patrick Beverley for Mo Bamba and immediately cut him. The last time this team traded for an on-court contributor was when they acquired PJ Dozier and Bol Bol in 2022.

Not everyone understands the art of the deal, it seems. As someone who has led their fantasy league in trades offered, trades made, and perfunctory phone calls, I don’t get it. If I were a GM, I’d just call to check in with people constantly. Can you imagine asking Pat Riley if he’s seen any good movies recently? Hey, Rob Pelinka, what’s your favorite pasta sauce?

I would’ve found out about the Luka trade entirely by accident.

Back on topic, there is so little to say here.

The Boston Celtics are who they are. Until proven otherwise, they’re the favorites to repeat. Even with the excellent season the Cavs have had, the Celtics are still the strong favorite to come out of the East.

Three Six Mafia

This is where the playoffs get fun. Leaving behind the world of sure things, we reach the Nirvana of “I don’t know, team with the higher record in six games.” In a cop out like no other, it becomes defensible to be wrong, while also celebratable (not a word, bear with me) to be right.

Since this is ultimately a Wolves site, I will leave that section up to them. I’ll link some of my favorite bits of coverage in a list below. I do have my thoughts, including some that no one else is ridiculous enough to say, but maybe it’s for the best that those don’t get shared.

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Los Angeles Lakers

In a Sentence: Don’t ask me, ask these guys.

• An excellent open letter from the GOAT of open letters, Leo Sun, addressing his personal history with the Los Angeles Lakers and the luck they have. This is a must-read for everyone who loves heartfelt, real, human NBA coverage.
• An analysis of how to attack Luka Dončić from Benny Hughes, trying to put a spotlight on what the Wolves failed to do against the Mavericks in last year’s conference finals. I hope Chris Finch feels the same way Benny does.
• The most recent episode of “Two Words: Wolves Pod” hosted by Ryan Eichten and the aforementioned Leo Sun, focuses on the focal playoff series with the Lakers.

Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

New York Knicks vs Detroit Pistons

In a Sentence: Not selling tickets to your opponents is a great playoff adjustment.

Many have framed this series as a potential upset, insisting that the Detroit Pistons have the pieces for a stretch run.

I kind of get it.

It’s been an incredibly disappointing year for a New York Knicks team that was expected to be true contenders before an awful second half of the season saw both of their stars likely fall out of All-NBA consideration.

On the Pistons side of things, the opposite is true. This has been an almost unprecedented turn of fate led by a young star finally having capable pieces around him that he can maximize. While Cade Cunningham has been fantastic, the additions of Malik Beasley, Ron Holland, and Tobias Harris have helped to set a positive direction.

With teams like this seemingly heading in opposite directions, it does make sense to take the team hitting its stride over the one longing for better days. But, I think anyone who watched the 2021-22 Playoffs, in which Malik Beasley’s offense was completely stripped from him against a Memphis team that removed his one strength, his shooting.

I’ll continue to say it; specialists in the playoffs frequently become prey. Beasley shot 43% from the field and 32% from distance while scoring 51 total points across six games. With Miles McBride and Mikal Bridges willing to fight over screens, it’s not hyperbolic to assume a similar thing could happen.

It seems stupid to fixate on Beasley as the turning point of this series, despite the Pistons’ reliance on him to buoy their lack of shooting beyond Tim Hardaway Jr. and Cade Cunningham. So let’s move on there.

The additional issue comes with the fact that the Pistons lack any real supplementary pieces to Cunningham. They have players all over the roster that rely on him, without many that he can rely on. If Cunningham struggles with OG Anunoby, who has been phenomenal in recent weeks, is there anyone who can step up to fill that void?

In a typical year, where rosters are fully healthy, fans would point to Jaden Ivey, but since his injury, it has been Cade’s gargantuan near 40% usage rate that has been the only foundation of their 14th ranked offense, barely keeping it afloat.

For the Pistons to pull off this upset, the Pistons would need to turn this series into an absolute grind fest, something I’m sure Tom Thibodeau would love. The Knicks are build for offense, depending on a couple of great wings and a fiesty small guard to compete defensively.

If the Knicks play to hide their weaknesses instead of feature their strength, an upset is not longer difficult to picture.

Colt Four Verse Five

This is what we live for. These are the matchups that inspire the most brain-tingling, mind-numbing experiences of basketball joy. Donovan Mitchell beating the Paul George – Russell Westbrook Thunder as a rookie. Victor Oladipo’s Pacers are going toe to toe with LeBron James at his apex. The Hawks stunned the Knicks in 2021 and beat them in five as the lesser seed.

This is where things get crazy, meaning this is where we’re allowed to get out there as well. Between the Denver Nuggets taking on the Los Angeles Clippers, a seeding battle that was just concluded on the last night of the season, and the Milwaukee Bucks continuing the rivalry with the Indiana Pacers, a matchup that has been locked in for weeks at this point, we are ready for some absolute haymakers to be thrown.

I’ll be honest, I think I’m taking both five seeds this year. I’ll explain why in a second, but this year feels like a year where each of those pairings should be inverted. The Nuggets limped into the playoffs while the Clippers surged out of the Play-In. The Bucks have an MVP candidate whose roster is finally getting healthy enough to help him out a bit, while the Pacers may not even be the best team in the state.

If I had to choose which one of the four seeds I’m more confident in, it’s clearly the Pacers. Even if the Nuggets boast Nikola Jokic, their level of instability cannot have the team ready or excited.

I need a Rick Adelman truther to prove me wrong. Do they even exist?

Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

Milwaukee Bucks vs Indiana Pacers

In a Sentence: You love love? I love hate.

First and foremost, let me say that I do not like the reaction fans are giving to Damian Lillard returning from a deep vein thrombosis. This is an injury that could genuinely lead Reggie Lewis/Hank Gathers situation if mishandled. Fans prioritizing their love for playoff basketball over the life of the player that defines it is gross.

While my hope is that doctors have double, triple, and quadruple checked Lillard — and even that wouldn’t be safe enough — framing his return as something akin to Willis Reed playing on a broken leg instead of a risk that is being framed as a super-heroic act of will power and medical miracle feels dangerous. Lillard should not be playing. He should not be risking his life for a game.

As I write this, game one has already begun, thankfully without Lillard, but there will be a push to rush him back. There will likely be no real problems, as we should hope, but the process feels dehumanizing and commodifying.

With that being said, the Bucks should have some worries. Ultimately, the supporting cast around Giannis has taken a sharp decline. Brook Lopez is having the worst year in a while after finishing as a finalist for DPOY. Bobby Portis is only on this team because no one would give the Bucks a difference maker in return for his contract at the deadline. Worst of all, Milwaukee traded their second-best player of the last 20 years and a promising project player for Kyle Kuzma, who has been awful.

This is a cake made of high quality ingredients, loving baked and crafted, that is covered in a sludge like icing of poor roster decisions made since that miraculous title run. In a simpler form, the Bucks have covered Giannis in buttercream frosting.

However, Giannis is still himself. He is a top three player in the NBA with a singlehanded ability to make this team look good. The series will come down to the load he can carry and the version of Dame that arrives.

On the Pacers side of things, this is still the team that made a run to the conference finals last year. They run, they play fast, and when Tyrese Halliburton gets going, he brings a levity to the roster that seemingly buffs the rest of the roster like a bard in a DnD party. Andrew Nembhard and Andrew Nesmith remain two of the more underrated role players in the NBA and Pascal Siakam embodies consistency.

The matchup of Siakam vs Giannis will be the storyline to watch. No one expects Pascal to win the battle, but keeping it close would do numbers to push the Pacers out front. A Siakam post up is an automatic score most times.

With Dame out, the Pacers have the 2nd through 6th best players of the series. The question is just how big the gap will be between the number one and everyone else.

Denver Nuggets vs Los Angeles Clippers

In a Sentence: The angriest pink man since Jessie punched Walter.

Am I really taking the Clippers here? Am I really betting against Nikola Jokic? Even more so, am I really believing in Playoff James Harden, when the man has come up short so many times over?

I think I am. It’s hard not to hide behind justifications and real logic, but I’m going with my gut. Teams that fire their coach mid-season rarely come out in front. The Grizzlies capsized after dumping Jenkins. The Nuggets, on the other hand, won three straight games.

I don’t care. The only time a team was galvanized by this level of instability was when the Cavs fired David Blatt (bad coach) for Ty Lue (good coach) mid-season despite having a winning record. However, those guys had a good few months to figure out what would change.

While it’s easy to equate LeBron James’ level of greatness to that of Nikola Jokic, the rest of the team is not remotely comparable. Jamal Murray is not Kyrie Irving — although the playoff atmosphere may change that. Aaron Gordon is not Kevin Love.

Denver will insist that they are ready to prove their roster’s ability, that they were misused and misunderstood by both sides of the previous management’s internal feud. But, much as with Jokic’s MVP argument, the historical precedent is not there. Teams with interim coaches do not win titles, they do not advance rounds, they flounder in the puddle they inhabit until they find a way to evolve their way to legs.

That’s how I view the Nuggets. A creature that once knew how to soar to great heights is now not just grounded, but clawing at the pit it’s stuck in. They need more time to find the new era of the roster surrounding Jokic. I would be shocked if they figured it out.

On the Clippers’ side, my argument is simple. James Harden’s pick and roll game, when accompanied by Ivica Zubac, who may just be the most underrated player in the league and a dark horse for an All-NBA team (I know I’m getting crazy here), has been incredible. With Jokic’s demonstrated disinterest in defense, this could be a huge swing.

Additionally, the flawless re-insertion of Kawhi Leonard and the Clippers’ 17-3 record in their last 20 games is enough for me to see them as a real threat.

Obviously, if I’m talking about historic precedent for firing a coach and winning, I must also mention that these are the Clippers. To believe in them is to know they will likely fail you. The question is not if, it’s when. I think the “when” of it all will happen against the Thunder.

Hero of the Week: Mouhamed Gueye

Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

I’ll keep this short because we are already over 4,000 words (god, who lets me get away with this?), but I was really excited to write about Gueye stepping into the Jalen Johnson role over the past few weeks to fill the need of the injured star forward.

While the Senegalese role player is not anything special from the box score stand point, his on off numbers are truly absurd and are part of the reason the Hawks made the Play In to begin with.

With Risacher and Johnson, the question for a third forward is finding someone who can fit interchangeably with either of those options. Impressively, they’ve found that in Gueye, who, knowing the way things have gone for my other Hero of the Week nominees (Duop Reath, I’m so sorry), means he will likely fail to get any minutes next year.

Let’s enjoy some playoff basketball!