How Do the Wolves Escape Their Groundhog Day Time Loop?

After the Minnesota Timberwolves dropped their fourth-straight game against the Sacramento Kings 115-104 on Nov. 27, Chris Finch felt like he was Bill Murray in 1993.

“It’s like Groundhog Day,” Finch told reporters. “We are playing the same game every night. [We] get down, fight back, run out of gas, and can’t close. That’s what we’ve been doing.”

It was still early in the season, but Minnesota’s immediate future was uncertain. They sat 12th in the Western Conference with an 8-10 record. Their offense and defense were middling (13th-rated offensive rating and 12th-rated defensive rating). Still, the Wolves were already a far cry from the Western Conference Finals team they were a season ago.

There would always be an acclimation period after Tim Connelly flipped Karl-Anthony Towns for Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo so close to the start of the season. Still, Minnesota’s roster appeared to be one of the deepest in the NBA. Therefore, when the Wolves started 8-10, frustration quickly mounted among a fanbase still hungover from Minnesota’s historic playoff run.

The Wolves committed to a defensive identity in 2023-24 and opened the playoffs 6-0, eventually reaching the West finals. They brought a blue-collar mentality into every game, which fans could trust.

However, the Wolves lost that identity 18 games into this season. They developed untrustworthy habits they’ve carried throughout the year.

In Minnesota’s loss to the Kings on Nov. 27, the Wolves’ 14-point first-half deficit prompted Finch’s Groundhog Day comments. They used all their energy to come back midway through the third quarter, but they allowed Sacramento to finish the game on a 23-4 run. That loss was similar to their previous three against the Toronto Raptors, Boston Celtics, and Houston Rockets.

“Our identity right now is we are soft as hell internally as a team,” Edwards said after the loss against the Kings. “We can’t talk to each other. It’s just like we are playing with a bunch of little kids – everybody, the whole team. We just can’t talk to each other. We have to figure out, man, because we can’t go down this road.”

In each game, the Wolves showed flashes of a team that could be feared in the West. However, they couldn’t produce productive and energetic play for 48 minutes.

The Timberwolves let the 3-12 Raptors hang around all night and take a nine-point lead with 2:33 left in the fourth. They came out more focused in Boston but let the Celtics take a 19-point lead in the third quarter, which proved insurmountable. They forced overtime against Houston, but the Rockets took a 15-point lead in the third and outscored the Wolves 15-9 in OT.

Minnesota was at a crossroads. Edwards publicly criticized the team, and they responded by winning nine of their next 13 games. The offense was still a work in progress, but the defense returned to the level it was at last season.

There was reason for optimism in a season filled with disappointment. DiVincenzo was finding a groove and looking comfortable in Minnesota’s offense, as was Randle. The Wolves were still putting together clunky games, such as their 113-107 home loss against the New York Knicks on December 19, but the gears were in motion.

Then, on Jan. 15, DiVincenzo suffered a right turf toe injury that has caused him to miss the last 18 games. Randle injured his right groin on Jan. 30, which has caused him to miss ten straight games. Anthony Edwards, Mike Conley, and Rudy Gobert have occasionally missed games in that stretch with less serious ailments.

Minnesota’s injuries were piling up on a team that was figuring things out at the worst possible time. However, that hasn’t stopped the Wolves from putting the pieces together.

“I love how the young guys have been playing, I really do,” Finch told the media after Minnesota’s 116-101 win over the Oklahoma City Thunder in the final game before the All-Star break. “We have to try and maintain a role for them going forward. Maybe not every one of them every night, but they have to stay ready.”

The Wolves entered that game against the Thunder without Randle, DiVincenzo, Gobert, and Conley. Jaylen Clark was starting in his first career game. Finch ran Jaden McDaniels at power forward with Naz Reid at center against the No. 1 seed in the West, who has the fifth-best offensive rating (117.8) and averages the 11th-most points in the paint (50.6).

Finch needed all the production he could get. It started on defense, with the Wolves blitzing Shai Gilgeous-Alexander effectively and feverishly rotating to get out on shooters. OKC shot 37 of 88 (42%) from the floor and 7 of 29 (24.1%) from deep; Gilgeous-Alexander went 6 of 21 from the floor in 34 minutes.

On the other side of the court, everyone chipped in.

• Reid led all scorers with 27 points on 11 of 18 shooting, pulled in 14 rebounds, and dished out a career-high seven assists.
• Edwards finished with 23 points. He shot 5 of 18 from the floor and 3 of 12 from deep but went 10 of 11 from the free throw line and dunked so hard in the first quarter that it woke the Wolves up for the rest of the game.
• McDaniels scored 21 points on 9 of 18 shooting.
• Nickeil Alexander-Walker shot 4 of 9 from 3-point range, finishing with 14 points.
• Terrence Shannon Jr. put up a new career-high 13 points 24 hours after setting a career high (11). The Wolves outscored OKC by 23 during his 29 minutes.

Minnesota leaped into the All-Star break, having won its best game of the season. More importantly, the Wolves were 9-4 over their last 13 games.

Injuries had forced Finch to go deep into his bench, leaning heavily on Jaylen Clark, Rob Dillingham, Luka Garza, and Shannon. Reid stepped into the starting lineup and has played like an All-Star, averaging 20.1 points since Randle’s injury. McDaniels has also quickly become a key component to Minnesota’s offense after being an offensive liability to start the season.

Out of the All-Star break, there was evidence that the Wolves could make a deep playoff run once healthy. The Target Center crowd occasionally booed the team early in the year, but the Wolves slowly earned their fanbase’s belief. However, every time Minnesota seems poised to shoot up the standings and create some cushion between themselves and the Play-In Tournament, it regresses to old habits, regardless of who is on the floor.

It was Groundhog Day again in Minnesota’s first game out of the All-Star break. Houston shot an uncanny 50% from the floor and 50% from deep in its 121-115 win over Minnesota. The Wolves dug themselves a 14-point hole in the first quarter, made it competitive in the second half, then crumbled in the fourth quarter. The Rockets shot 7 of 16 in the fourth, propping the door open for the Wolves to win. Still, Minnesota shot 8 of 24, and Edwards went 1 of 6 in the fourth on a night when he dropped 37.

“I felt great,” Edwards said when a reporter asked him about his late-game woes against Houston. “I think I was a little fatigued today in the first game after the break. I got a little fatigued in the fourth, but I got great looks. If I get those looks every time in the fourth, I feel like we are going to win, and we will be alright.”

Edwards got some looks in the fourth that he can make, but he also took a couple of hero 3-point attempts early in the shot clock, which will make any coach groan, and passed up on the easy play to try and make a highlight.

Minnesota has played in a league-high-tying 36 clutch games. It’s 15-21 in those games and has a 41.7 win percentage, the sixth-worst in the NBA. The Wolves are shooting 41.4% from the floor in clutch time (21st league-wide), 26.6% from deep (26th), and their opponents have outscored them by 52 points, worse than any other team.

Edwards has contributed to those struggles. He’s shooting 40.2% from the floor in clutch time, 30.4% from deep, and has 11 turnovers and nine assists.

How could a fanbase trust and believe in a team that can’t execute down the stretch, headed by a player whose shot dries up in the last five minutes and relies on hero shots early in the shot clock? Wolves fans know how important it is to have closers. Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving had ice water in their veins against Minnesota in the West finals.

The Wolves welcomed the Thunder back into Target Center in their next game. They stayed competitive the entire night, taking a five-point lead with 8:11 left in the fourth. OKC had its moments, scoring 42 points in the third and shooting 7 of 11 from deep in the fourth. However, the Wolves – who were still down DiVincenzo, Randle, and Gobert – played like a team that knows they can hang with a team like the Thunder, possibly in a playoff series. Still, Oklahoma City was better in the clutch.

It’s difficult to gauge where the Wolves sit. They are tied for eighth in the Western Conference and have the third-easiest remaining schedule after their back-to-back set against the Thunder. There is also optimism that Randle and DiVincenzo could return during Minnesota’s four-game road trip that ends on March 2.

The Wolves could finish with one of the best records over the season’s final two months. They have shown they can be a team no one wants to see in the postseason. However, the Wolves continue to have untrustworthy habits that they can’t shake.

With 24 regular games remaining, we still don’t know who the Wolves are, and fans wonder if they should believe in this team. We will probably not know what Minnesota is capable of and who it truly is until this season ends. Maybe that comes with an exit in the Play-In Tournament. Perhaps the Wolves get a bad matchup in the first or second round and get bounced. Or maybe they can fight with the best teams in the West and surprise everyone.

Both options seem likely to a certain extent, given how the Wolves have played this season.