Everyone Overlooked Ant’s Most Valuable Skill During the Draft Process

The Ringer’s annual draft guide before the 2020 draft listed Anthony Edwards as the second-best prospect in the draft.

“Powerful driving to the rim,” they listed as his first strength. “When he initiates contact, defenders bounce off him. Finishes with athleticism and displays soft touch with either hand.”

Chet Holmgren would agree after Thursday night’s game.

The Ringer’s top minus for Edwards?

“Not a pure shooter.”

NBA draft net listed his lack of a midrange game as a weakness. NBA scouting live piled on, pointing out a need to improve shooting.

Universally, the draft community agreed that Edwards must improve his shot selection.

As Edwards prepares to participate in his third All-Star Game, he has proven that everyone missed his most valuable skill set during the draft process.

His ability to improve.

Entering the league, Edwards played as advertised. He was a slasher who made electrifying dunks and finished at the rim with ease. He finished at 59.6% from the restricted area while converting on 87.5% of his dunk attempts and 50.6% of his layups.

However, as the draft community highlighted, shot selection became his greatest weakness. Edwards shot a paltry 32.0% from everywhere outside the restricted area. He shot 32.9% from three and 26.6% from mid-range.

However, Edwards showed his ability to improve in his second season. He focused on his mid-range game, jumping from 26.6% to 35.2%, closer to league average on nearly identical attempts. A year later, his attempts throughout the season doubled from mid-range, and his percentage again rose to 36.8%.

In 2023-24, Edwards shot an additional 68 mid-range shots, and his percentage remained solid at 35.1%. While it should be noted his mid-range shot is not at an elite level, like Kevin Durant’s (55.2% this season), Edwards’ mid-range game has turned from a glaring weakness to a positive in only three seasons.

The same can be said about his three-point shooting.

In his rookie year, Edwards only shot 32.9%, well below the league average of 38.0%. Edwards also shot below 30.0% from both corners while shooting 33.9% on above-the-break threes. As if to prove the draft analysts’ point on his shot IQ, Edwards shot 434 above-the-break threes in the 2020-21 season, which was 6 more attempts than his total number of shots from his most productive spot in the restricted area (428).

One season later, Edwards was shooting 35.6% from the corners and 35.8% from above the break while increasing his volume from 434 to 539. In 2022-23, his corner three percentage improved to 43.3%, and his above-the-break threes ticked up to 36.3% on a similar volume. In 2023-24, as with his midrange, his three-ball remained solid, shooting 36.2% from above the break, while his corner percentage dropped to 34.6%.

Then Edwards has exploded this season. He’s shooting 42.4% on above-the-break threes on nearly double his previous career high of volume, while remaining solid from the corners at 38.6%. Like the midrange, Edwards took a perceived negative in his game and has turned it into a positive.

Edwards isn’t prime Kyle Korver (53.6% from three in 2009-10). Still, he has turned his three-point shot into one of the most dangerous shots in basketball.

Edwards has made his midrange serviceable and turned his three-point shot into a strength while remaining an elite finisher. He’s still finishing at 59.2% in the restricted area, converting on 81.1% of dunks and 56.7% on layups, nearly identical to his rookie season, which was his greatest strength.

That’s not to say Edwards is the perfect player. His usage level was 31.4% last season and 31.2% this season, but his turnovers have increased by 11.4%. Edwards remains the 8th-highest isolation player in the NBA. However, he ranks 117th in points per isolation play (0.85), nestled between Josh Giddy (116) and Desmond Bane (118). He also occasionally struggles with off-ball defense.

Still, Edwards doesn’t turn 24 until August. It’s impossible to know how high his ceiling will continue to rise. Last season, it appeared Edwards had leveled off in his three-point percentages. This year, he’s in the conversation for the best volume three-point shooting season ever. Edwards could come back from the upcoming summer and be at James Harden’s level of isolation production (1.10 points per play,) and it would be in line with how fast he has been improving other skills he decides to focus on.

Edwards’ turnovers are often due to attention to detail. His 11.1 turnover ratio ranks 342 in the NBA. It’s an area he could improve over the offseason. It also wouldn’t surprise anyone at this point if he came back from break running the offense effectively like Kyle Anderson (6.7 turnover ratio).

Edwards is quickly running out of flaws to fix from his draft guide. As he crosses flaws off his list, Wolves fans must continue to adjust to Edwards’ new potential.

Most players don’t hit their prime until age 27. Edwards is still four years away from being the peak version of himself. Edwards is only four and a half years into his career, so he’s still largely an unfinished player who will continue to grow.